Friday, 15 November 2024
Summary
(1) Real estate developers launched 534 private housing units and sold 738 in October 2024. An improving job market could have contributed to a recovery in the property market sentiments.
(2) From January to October this year, property developers released and sold a total of 3,756 and 3,787 private housing units respectively, excluding EC. However, the 2024 sales volume pale by comparison when matched against the 5,533 private residential units sold by developers in the first ten months of 2023.
(3) Some developers are even bringing forward the launch of their new projects in November before Donald Trump imposes trade tariffs which could adversely affect the global economy. The trade war would subsequently hurt the local property market.
(4) Property developers could end this year on a more positive note with about 5,000 to 5,500 units sold for the whole of 2024.
(5) Private housing price contracted 1.1% in 3Q 2024. The rise in property sales in the fourth quarter is expected to reverse the price decline, resulting in a 2% to 3% price expansion for the whole of 2024.
Introduction
In October 2024, property developers released 534 private housing units for sale, 22.2% more units than the launch volume in September 2024. The increase in the number of new residential units whet the appetite of homebuyers leading to an 84% month-on-month (mom) jump in the number of private residential units sold last month, excluding Executive Condominium (EC) units.
Overall, developers sold 738 private housing units and 28 EC units in October. The primary housing sales volume in the first nine months of this year has been muted. The private primary home sales last month is the highest since November 2023, when developers sold 784 units in that month.
Still pale by comparison
In the first ten months of this year, property developers released and sold a total of 3,756 and 3,787 private housing units respectively, excluding EC.
However, the 2024 sales volume pale by comparison when matched against the 5,533 private residential units sold by developers in the January to October period last year.
The increase in the number of private homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 could close the gap between the property transaction volume in 2023 and 2024. However, the residential primary market sales volume this year is unlikely to surpass that of 2023.
Reasons for pick up in property sales
One of the reasons for the increase in primary residential property sales is the launches of new housing projects last month, which has drawn some buyers who have been sitting on the fence.
In addition, the improvement in the employment market could have contributed to the positive property buying sentiments. The number of unemployed local residents has declined for two consecutive quarters from 72,500 people in 1Q 2024 to 62,500 persons in 3Q 2024.
Furthermore, the easing of interest rates could also have contributed to the homebuying demand. The US Federal Reserve reduced borrowing costs by 50 basis points in September and could cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this December. The reduction in US interest rates influences the local borrowing costs, which in turn, raises the demand for more risky assets, such as real estate.
New residential launches in October
October saw the launch of two new residential projects, Norwood Grand and Meyer Blue.
Norwood Grand is a 99-year leasehold condominium development situated at Champions Way in Woodlands. This project comprises of 348 residential units, with 292 of them being sold in October alone. This translates to an impressive 84% of units being sold within a few weeks at the median price of $2,081 per square foot (psf).
Over at the East Coast, Meyer Blue is the other residential development launched in October. The 226-unit freehold development is situated along Meyer Road. Buyers acquired 124 units in the freehold project last month at a median price of $3,240 psf.
Table 1: New launches in October 2024
Project name | Location | Postal District | Total No. of units in project | No. of units sold in October | Median price ($psf) |
Norwood Grand | Champions Way | 25 | 348 | 292 | $2,081 |
Meyer Blue | Meyer Road | 15 | 226 | 124 | $3,240 |
Source: Mogul.sg Research, URA
After strong property sales in October
There residential primary market was less active in the first nine months of this year and developers only launched 3,222 private housing units from January to September. The release of more housing units in the last quarter of this year is like a deluge after the drought.
After the strong primary property sales last month, real estate developers are ramping up their residential project launches in the closing months of this year.
Some developers are even bringing forward the launch of their new projects. The initial launch of The Collective at One Sopia was planned for January 2025. But the developer brought forward the launch to 6 November this year.
Property developers have been waiting for the most opportune time to launch their residential projects. The positive sentiments in October and November is like the starter gun for the project releases.
The Trump factor
Another key reason for the developers’ rush to launch is the expected global economic uncertainties that could be unleashed by US President-elect Donald Trump when he takes over the White House in the coming January. Trump has promised to increased tariffs on imports into the United States, which could stifle global trade.
As a result, this could adversely affect Singapore’s economic growth and the sentiments in the property market, as our economy is highly trade dependent. Hence, real estate developers are taking this opportunity to strike while the iron is hot.
New residential launches in November
Activities in the residential primary market is heating up in November with the launch of six new non-landed projects, namely Chuan Park, The Collective at One Sophia, Nava Grove, Novo Place, Union Square Residences and Emerald of Katong.
The launch of these six residential developments will inject a total of 3,551 units into the primary housing market.
Table 1: Developments launching in November 2024
Project name | Street name | Postal district | Total no. of units in project | Launch date in 2024 | Average price ($psf) |
The Collective at One Sophia | Sophia Road | 09 | 367 | 6-Nov | $2,750 |
Union Square Residences | Havelock Road | 01 | 366 | 9-Nov | $3,200 |
Chuan Park | Lorong Chuan | 19 | 916 | 10-Nov | $2,579 |
Nava Grove | Ulu Pandan Road | 21 | 552 | 16-Nov | N.A. |
Novo Place (EC) | Bukit Batok West Ave 8 | 24 | 504 | 16-Nov | N.A. |
Emerald of Katong | Jalan Tembusu | 15 | 846 | 16-Nov | N.A. |
Source: Mogul.sg Research, URA
These six developments are spread across Singapore, with One Sophia in the Core Central Region (CCR), Union Square Residences in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), and the other four projects in the Outside Central Region (OCR).
The wider geographical spread of the six developments would reduce any head-on competition between them, allowing each developer to set new record prices for their new launches. At the same time, it would also cater to buyers from the different market segments in Singapore.
Outlook
With the expected increase in residential property launches in November and based on our market intelligence and analysis, developers could sell between 2,000 and 2,500 private housing units in the last quarter of 2024, which would be about two-third of the primary housing units transacted in the first nine months of this year. As a result, property developers could end this year on a more positive note with about 5,000 to 5,500 units sold for the whole of 2024.
The private housing price index contracted 1.1% in 3Q 2024. The rise in property sales in the fourth quarter is expected to reverse the price decline, resulting in a 2% to 3% price expansion for the whole of 2024.
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