Introduction
The transaction volume in the Singapore private housing primary market jumped in November 2023 before the year-end holiday season starts.
Property developers launched 970 private units last month, 18 times more than the 54 units released in October. Due to the increase in the number of units launched last month, the primary market sales more than tripled to 784 units in November, compared to October’s sales.
New launches in November
Three new residential projects were launched in November, namely J’den, Hillock Green and Watten House. (See Table 1) A total of 570 units in these three projects were sold last month, which made up 72.7% of the 784 units sold in November.
J’den was the best-selling project last month. Due to its proximity to the Jurong East town centre and the pent-up demand in that location, 89.4% of the 368-unit J’den was sold in November at the median price of $2,475 psf. The median price of J’den set a new high benchmark price for private housing in the Jurong area, which would be hard to match in 2024.
Table 1: New residential projects launched in November 2023
Project name | Market Segment | Total no. of units in development | Units launched (Nov 2023) | Units sold (Nov 2023) | Median price ($psf) |
J'den | OCR | 368 | 368 | 329 | $2,475 |
Hillock Green | OCR | 474 | 460 | 132 | $2,110 |
Walten House | CCR | 180 | 109 | 109 | $3,199 |
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
If it was not for the launch and subsequent sales of these three projects, the primary market would suffer another quiet month in November. Table 2 shows the five best-selling residential projects in November. Other than the three new launches, fewer than 20 units were sold in each of the other projects last month.
Table 2: Best-selling residential projects islandwide in November 2023
Project Name | Street Name | No. of units sold (Nov 2023) | Land tenure | Planning area | Median price ($psf) |
J'den | Jurong East Central 1 | 329 | 99 years | Jurong East | $2,475 |
Hillock Green | Lentor Central | 132 | 99-years | Ang Mo Kio | $2,110 |
Walten House | Shelford Rd | 109 | Freehold | Bukit Timah | $3,199 |
Grand Dunman | Dunman Rd | 17 | 99 years | Marine Parade | $2,567 |
Pinetree Hill | Pine Grove | 17 | 99 years | Bukit Timah | $2,446 |
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
The last hurrah
The residential primary market appears to remain subdued in December due to the traditional year-end lull period. Hence, the surge in the number of housing units launched and sold in November is the last hurrah for this year.
An estimated 6,500 to 6,700 private housing units are sold by developers this year, fewer than the 7,099 units sold in 2022.
Last year, developers sold 1,479 Executive Condominium (EC) units. This year, the developers’ sales of EC units is projected to half to about 730 to 750 units due to the limited number of new EC projects available for sale.
Chart 1: Private housing monthly launch volume
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
Chart 2: Private housing monthly primary market sales volume
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
Outlook
Twelve months ago, there were more than 30 residential projects slated to be launched in 2023. Some commentors were painting a very bullish forecast that developers could sell more than 10,000 units in 2023. Today, the facts point to a very different picture. This is because housing supply does not generate its own demand.
Some developers held back the launches of their projects in 2023, hoping that the market would be more sanguine next year. Hence, there is a sense of déjà vu, as there are several residential projects that are slated to be launched in 2024.
The current weak sentiments in the property market, partly contributed by the soft employment market, would delay the launches of most of the upcoming projects to the second quarter of 2024 and beyond. In addition, some developers would also avoid launching their project around the holiday season of the Lunar New Year in February.
Furthermore, the expected decline in residential rental rates, the higher property taxes in 2024 and the existing property curbs would weigh down investment demand for residential properties in the coming year.
The good news on the horizon is that interest rates could ease in the coming months, which would reduce borrowing costs for homebuyers. The performance of the private housing market in 2024 would hinge on the Singapore economy and especially the employment market and wage growth. If the outlook for the Singapore economy and employment market were to improve significantly next year, it would give a shot in the arm to housing demand. Otherwise, we can expect a repeat of the subdued sales volume of 2023 next year. That would be déjà vu… again.
Table 3: Best-selling residential projects in Core Central Region in November 2023
Project Name | Street Name | No. of units sold in Nov | Land Tenure | Planning Area | Median price ($psf) in Nov |
Watten House | Shelford Road | 109 | Freehold | Bukit Timah | $3,199 |
19 Nassim | Nassim Hill | 5 | 99 years | Tanglin | $3,396 |
Orchard Sophia | Sophia Hill | 4 | Freehold | Rochor | $2,789 |
10 Evelyn | Evelyn Rd | 4 | Freehold | Novena | $2,839 |
Midtown Modern | Tan Quee Lan Street | 4 | 99 years | Downtown Core | $2,965 |
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
Table 4: Best-selling residential projects in Rest of Central Region in November 2023
Project Name | Street name | No. of units sold in Nov | Land Tenure | Planning Area | Median price ($psf) in Nov |
Grand Dunman | Dunman Rd | 17 | 99 years | Marine Parade | $2,567 |
Pinetree Hill | Pine Grove | 17 | 99 years | Bukit Timah | $2,446 |
The Continuum | Thiam Siew Ave | 16 | Freehold | Geylang | $2,791 |
The Reserve Residences | Jalan Anak Bukit | 13 | 99 years | Bukit Timah | $2,576 |
The Landmark | Chin Swee Rd | 9 | 99 years | Outram | $2,663 |
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
Table 5: Best-selling residential projects Outside Central Region in November 2023
Project Name | Street Name | No. of units sold in Nov | Tenure | Planning Area | Median price ($psf) in Nov |
Hillock Green | Lentor Central | 132 | 99 years | Ang Mo Kio | $2,110 |
J'den | Jurong East Central 1 | 329 | 99 years | Jurong East | $2,475 |
Lentor Hills Residences | Lentor Hills Rd | 16 | 99 years | Ang Mo Kio | $2,084 |
The Lakegarden Residences | Yuan Ching Rd | 15 | 99 years | Jurong East | $2,080 |
The Myst | Upper Bukit Timah Rd | 10 | 99 years | Bukit Panjang | $2,060 |
Source: MOGUL.sg, URA
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