Summary
The private residential property prices increased at a faster pace in 4Q 2024, driven by
the surge in private new home sales. Second, the median price of new non-landed homes
sold by developers in 4Q 2024 was $2,569 psf (per square foot), which was 50% higher than
the median transacted price of secondary market non-landed homes, contributing to the fast
price growth.
The CCR non-landed housing price index increased in 4Q 2024, recovering the price
contraction suffered in the second and third quarters of 2024. This will bode well for property
developers with CCR residential projects slated to be launched in 2025.
The average number of months between each round of property cooling measures since
July 2018 is 19.2 months. It has been 20 months since the April 2023 cooling measures. If
the surge in housing demand and accompanying price growth seen in the fourth quarter of
last year were to be repeated in 2025, the risk of another round of property curbs could not
be discounted.
In the absence of further severe intervention by the government in the property market,
private housing price index could increase by 3% to 6% for the whole of 2025. The price
growth would be primarily driven by home sales in the city fringe and suburban areas as
these are the locations preferred by local buyers.
Introduction
The Singapore private residential property prices increased by 2.3% in the last quarter of
2024 over the preceding quarter, which more than recovered the 0.7% quarter-on-quarter
(qoq) decline in the third quarter of last year, according to the flash estimates of the property
price indices released by the URA.
The overall property prices increased by 3.9% year-on-year (yoy) in 2024, which is slower
than the 6.8% yoy price growth in 2023. The overall slower price expansion in 2024 is partly
due to the property market curbs implemented by the government in April 2023.
Driving the price growth
First, the surge in private new home sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 is a key driver of the
property price growth. In the seven quarters before 4Q 2024, the number of private homes
sold by developers averaged 28.2% of the total number of private housing units transacted
each quarter, excluding Executive Condominiums. The remaining 71.8% of the total property
units transacted occurred in the secondary market.
In 4Q 2024, the proportion of private homes transacted in the primary market jumped to 51%
of the total home sales volume in the 3-month period. Therefore, the prices of the new
homes sold by developers in the October to December period last year has an outsized
influence on the private residential property price trend.
Second, the prices of new homes sold by developers are typically higher than the prices of
comparable resale residential properties on a dollar per square foot (psf) basis. The median
price of new non-landed homes sold by developers in 4Q 2024 was $2,569 per square foot
(psf), which was 50% higher than the median transacted price of secondary market non-
landed homes, excluding Executive Condominiums.
Therefore, the faster price appreciation in 4Q 2024 was driven by the transacted new homes
that made up a greater proportion of the total sales volume and were sold at prices that are
higher than those of resale homes.
Property market segments
After declining in the second and third quarters of 2024, the Core Central Region (CCR) non-
landed housing price index increased 2.4% qoq in 4Q 2024. As a result, it has more than
recovered the price contraction suffered in the April to September period of 2024.
This recovery in the high-end housing prices will bode well for property developers with
residential projects in the CCR slated to be launched in 2025. However, they should not
delay the launches any further because if the government were to introduce a new round of
property market curbs, the new restrictions are more likely to affect the demand for high-end
properties than the other market segments, based on past property cooling measures.
Outlook and Policy risk
About 20 new residential projects could potentially be launched in 2025. Half of these
developments are in the CCR. The steady property price growth and strong primary market
sales in the fourth quarter illustrated the elevated level of the homebuyers’ demand and risk
appetite. This would be the impetus for developers to push out their new launches this year.
Apart from the landed housing price index, the prices of non-landed private homes increased
at an accelerated pace in all the three market segments in 4Q 2024. In addition, the number
of private homes transacted in the fourth quarter has also expanded.
Since the introduction of the property cooling measures in July 2018, the government has
introduced three other rounds of property market curbs that were targeted at the private
housing market. The average duration between each round of property cooling measures
since July 2018 is 19.2 months. It has been 20 months since the April 2023 cooling
measures, when the government doubled the ABSD for foreign buyers of Singapore homes
to an eye-watering 60% of the property price.
Although the government is unlikely to implement real estate cooling measures based on a
predetermined schedule, it appears that some of the effectiveness of the previous rounds of
property curbs are waning. Therefore, if the surge in housing demand and accompanying
price growth seen in the fourth quarter of last year were to be repeated at a sustained period
in 2025, the risk of another round of property curbs could not be discounted.
However, in the absence of further severe intervention by the government in the property
market, private housing price index could increase by 3% to 6% for the whole of 2025. The
price growth would be primarily driven by home sales in the city fringe and suburban areas
as these are the locations preferred by local buyers, who are the main demand drivers in the
housing market. About 98.4% of the private homes transacted in 2024 were acquired by
local buyers, such as Singaporeans and Singapore permanent residents.
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